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{{Workflow
|Plaintiff verdict=No
|Stage=Waiting for Plaintiff verdict
|Filed by=User:Frank
|Case ID=AffHfj3hjHaf6hf0ch0h
|Lie=Intelligent Life Is Self Destructive
|Topic=Scientific Lie
|Accusation=According to the probabilistic Drake Equation (see below), advanced intelligent life has probably developed many times in the universe. For example, if the odds of an advanced civilization developing on a habitable planet are one in a trillion, then at least 10 billion such civilizations should have occurred.

We are left with a quandary. To restate the Fermi Paradox, where are they? Why have we not encountered them?

Researchers at NASA's JPL have written a paper (in the peer review process) that states that such civilizations have most likely been "filtered" out, the result of five factors: 1) Diseases/pandemics; 2) Wars (probably nuclear); 3) Depletion of resources/self-induced climate change; 4) Natural catastrophe, i.e., astroids or volcanoes; 5) Destruction by rogue Artificial Intelligence.

The researchers call this phenomenon the Great Filter, and claim that the odds of surviving long enough to communicate with others are astonishingly small. What's more, given the vastness of the cosmos, even if a civilization did survive the Great Filter, the likelihood of an encounter between us and them practically nil.

Please refer to the articles and the researchers' paper, below:

1) https://www.huffpost.com/entry/great-filter-theory-intelligent-life-extinction-nasa_n_636fee4ce4b0ca9acf253784

2) https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/

3) https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2210/2210.10582.pdf

4) Here is a discussion about the Drake Equation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

5) N =R∗ ×fp ×ne ×fl ×fi ×fc ×L. (1)

• N is the number of currently active, communicative civilizations in our galaxy.
• R∗ is the rate at which stars form in our galaxy.
• fp is the fraction of stars with planets.
• ne is the number of planets that can potentially host life, per star that has planets.
• fl is the fraction of the above that actually do develop life of any kind.
• fi is the fraction of the above that develop intelligent life.
• fc is the fraction of the above that develop the capacity for interstellar communication.
• L is the length of time that such communicative civilizations are active.

Note that “fraction of the above” means that all the previous conditions have been satisfied. For example, when we consider fc we assume that intelligent life has already developed.

|Locations=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/great-filter-theory-intelligent-life-extinction-nasa_n_636fee4ce4b0ca9acf253784
|Markup=<b>All intelligent life has likely destroyed itself before reaching a sophisticated enough point in its evolution to support an encounter with our civilization.</b>
|uuid=5df59af1-834b-4ee3-aa33-b77192896f9f
}}

@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 |Random judge=done
 |Judge=User:Rht5
-|Random juror=User:Armar, User:Rvnash, User:Tantalus1, User:Peterjensen,
+|Random juror=User:Rvnash, User:Tantalus1, User:Peterjensen,
 |Juror amount=5
-|Jurors=User:Justin, User:Bas
+|Jurors=User:Justin,User:Bas, User:Armar
 }}

@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 |Random judge=done
 |Judge=User:Rht5
-|Random juror=User:Armar, User:Bas,User:Rvnash, User:Tantalus1, User:Peterjensen
+|Random juror=User:Armar, User:Rvnash, User:Tantalus1, User:Peterjensen,
 |Juror amount=5
-|Jurors=User:Justin
+|Jurors=User:Justin, User:Bas
 }}

@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 |Random judge=done
 |Judge=User:Rht5
-|Random juror=User:Armar,User:Bas,User:Justin
+|Random juror=User:Armar, User:Bas,User:Rvnash, User:Tantalus1, User:Peterjensen
 |Juror amount=5
 }}

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 {{Workflow
 |Plaintiff verdict=No
-|Stage=Judge accepted
+|Stage=Needs jurors
 |Filed by=User:Frank
 |Case ID=AffHfj3hjHaf6hf0ch0h
@@ Line 42: / Line 42: @@
 |Judge=User:Rht5
 |Random juror=User:Armar,User:Bas,User:Justin
 }}

@@ Line 41: / Line 41: @@
 |Random judge=done
 |Judge=User:Rht5
 }}

@@ Line 39: / Line 39: @@
 |Markup=<b>All intelligent life has likely destroyed itself before reaching a sophisticated enough point in its evolution to support an encounter with our civilization.</b>
 |uuid=5df59af1-834b-4ee3-aa33-b77192896f9f
-|Random judge=User:Tkyoder
+|Random judge=User:Rht5
 }}

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 {{Workflow
 |Plaintiff verdict=No
-|Stage=Waiting for Plaintiff verdict
+|Stage=Needs judge
 |Filed by=User:Frank
 |Case ID=AffHfj3hjHaf6hf0ch0h
 |Lie=Intelligent Life Is Self Destructive
 |Topic=Scientific Lie
 |Accusation=According to the probabilistic Drake Equation (see below), advanced intelligent life has probably developed many times in the universe. For example, if the odds of an advanced civilization developing on a habitable planet are one in a trillion, then at least 10 billion such civilizations should have occurred.
@@ Line 36: / Line 36: @@
 Note that “fraction of the above” means that all the previous conditions have been satisfied. For example, when we consider fc we assume that intelligent life has already developed.
 |Locations=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/great-filter-theory-intelligent-life-extinction-nasa_n_636fee4ce4b0ca9acf253784
 |Markup=<b>All intelligent life has likely destroyed itself before reaching a sophisticated enough point in its evolution to support an encounter with our civilization.</b>
 |uuid=5df59af1-834b-4ee3-aa33-b77192896f9f
 }}